An Analysis of Financial Integration and Financial Stability in India
Dr. Niranjan R1, Anjaneya H2
1Assistant Professor, Dept of Studies and Research in Economics, V S K University, Ballari.
2Research Scholar, Dept of Studies and Research in Economics, V S K University, Ballari.
*Corresponding Author E-mail:
ABSTRACT:
The financial system is essential for growth, and a repressed financial system, characterized by price distortion, under saving, negative or unstable returns on savings and investment, and inefficient allocation of savings among competing users, impedes growth. As the financial system develops, households substitute out of unproductive tangible assets, raising the total real supply of credit, the quantity and quality of investment, and thus the rate of economic growth. In this perspective, the lack of financial development is simply a manifestation of the lack of demand for financial services. As the real sectors of the economy grow the demand for various financial services rises and will thus be met by the financial sector. Financial integration is a phenomenon in which financial markets of economies are closely integrated. Financial integration is used as an indicator of long run equilibrium which explains a greater inter-linkage or greater complementary relationship across different market segments. A good, solvent and efficient financial sector is a prerequisite for the smooth functioning of the real economy. In India, the concept of financial stability is a late entry. The present study examines the causal relationship between financial integration in India. The main focus of the study is to quantify the links between financial depth, Growth, Inflation and Per capita growth with comparative to other countries to know effective financial sustainability in the economy. Hence the present work enlightened the financial integration in India. The study will be undertaken by collecting Secondary sources of data and information. The data will be obtained from published sources such as World Bank, IMF, RBI, etc. The study will be evaluating the impact of the financial integration and macroeconomic growth determinants, by using India as a country- specific case with macro level data sets. The choice of different statistical techniques is based on suitability to the objectives of the study. All this goes to show the better prospects and wide scope for Financial Integration in India the forthcoming financial era.
KEYWORDS: Financial Integration, Financial Stability, GDP growth rate, Per Capita growth rate, Inflation, India.
INTRODUCTION:
Financial integration is a phenomenon in which financial markets of economies are closely integrated. Financial integration is used as an indicator of long run equilibrium which explains a greater inter-linkage or greater complementary relationship across different market segments.
Financial integration will be achieved from the elimination of restrictions pertaining to cross border financial operations to allow (a) financial institutions to operate freely, (b) permit businesses to directly raise funds or borrow and (c) equity and bond investors to invest across the state line with fewer restrictions. However, it is important to note that many of the legal restrictions exist because of the market imperfections that hinder financial integration. Legal restrictions are sometimes second best devices for dealing with the market imperfections that limit financial integration. Consequently, removing the legal restrictions can make the world economy become worse off. In addition, financial integration of neighboring, regional and global economies can take place through a formal international treaty which the governing bodies of these economies agree to cooperate to address regional or global financial disturbances through regulatory and policy responses. The extent to which financial integration is measured includes gross capital flows, stocks of foreign assets and liabilities, degree of co movement of stock returns, degree of dispersion of worldwide real interest rates, and financial openness. Also there are views that not gross capital flows (capital inflow plus capital outflow), but bilateral capital flows determine financial integration of a country, which disregards capital surplus and capital deficit amounts. For instance, a county with only capital inflow and no capital outflow will be considered not financially integrated.
Financial Integration in the Global Context:
Since the late 1980s, the majority of emerging market economies has gone through important structural changes by liberalizing their domestic financial system. On one side, the expansion of developed countries’ market share required developing countries to improve the structure of their domestic financial institutions. On the other side, developing countries had to open up to the global market to avail them selves of international finance at a lower cost. So, financial liberalization led to the betterment of domestic financial segments while making countries more interlinked to the global financial market. However, financial integration has become one of the most controversial aspects of financial liberalization because of highly volatile short-term debt and speculative hot capital flows across nations. First, people can earn by selling and re-selling their financial assets at a higher price than the buying price, and second, they can earn interest on their holdings. There is therefore an obsession to invest in financial assets that can provide a high speculative return. In this context, financial integration across countries is criticized because it increases systemic risk, though one of the important objectives of financial liberalization was to diversify Risk in the globalised market.
In the context of diversification of risk across a larger number of investors in the global market, the securitization of financial assets has been a recent addition. It has reduced the risk of particular banks but increased the systematic risk. It has also led to the innovation of newer and more complex financial instruments, especially credit and derivative instruments that have begun playing an important role in the integration of the global financial market. The conventional financial system did not have these many financial instruments to play with. It is true that such complex credit and derivative instruments are mostly concentrated in US-like developed nations, but Asian countries are major investors in these securities. Whether financial integration leads to higher growth or makes a country more prone to systematic risk is a matter of debate. Financial integration across domestic financial segments may lead to real sector growth by providing greater accessibility of funds through alternative financial institutions. However, efficient channelization of funds depends on many other factors such as the existence of a developed and transparent market, technological betterment, an efficient payment system, the prevalence of good governance, political stability, and the deepening of financial services. In this regard, Prasad et al. (2003) argued that considering all these factors in an analysis hardly provides any convincing connection between financial integration and economic growth. Further, they provided empirical evidence to show that a country faces more instability if it makes an effort to become financially integrated with the world economy. Importantly, many developing countries, including India, began liberalizing their financial sectors without fulfilling most of these criteria. However, from the recent financial crisis in the US and Europe it is evident that the existence of a highly efficient market system and good governance may not always be saviors. From this crisis, it is also very clear that financial integration makes countries more vulnerable to external shocks, while growth is not convincingly assured.
Financial Integration in the Indian Context:
Given this background of global financial integration and its role in promoting growth and increasing the possibility of external shock, it may be interesting to examine the implication of financial liberalization in India. One of the major objectives of financial reforms started in the 1990s, 10 were to achieve financial integration. To achieve better channelization of resources, India had to achieve the simultaneous development of different domestic financial segments such as the money market, capital market and foreign exchange market. At the same time, it was necessary to reap the benefits of an association with the international market in terms of better and larger access to external finance, more profitable investment opportunities and diversification of risk. In the 1970s and 1980s, India went through several calamities on the economic, financial and social fronts. Most financial institutions were inefficient in providing minimum support for the growth of the real sector economy. Consequently, making finance available at an affordable cost and improving the performance of the domestic financial segments were the two most important challenges to the Indian economy. To overcome deadlocks in the financial system, India’s financial sectors have been going through a phase of transformation in the past two decades to realize better development of the banking industry, capital market and foreign exchange market. It has been going through a structural change characterized by market-determined interest and exchange rates, price-based instruments of monetary policy, current account convertibility, phased capital account liberalization and an auction-based system in the government securities market.
As a consequence of the removal of institutional barriers on international financial transactions and the increase in foreign participation in the domestic market, India began experiencing a robust flow of international capital. It may be noted that India’s Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) is among the 10 biggest stock markets in the world by domestic market capitalization (WFE, 2007). Also, in terms of broad stock index performance, India’s National Stock Exchange (NSE) and BSE stood eighth and ninth respectively during the period 2007-08 (WFE, 2008). This reflects why India is a preferred destination for foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and an important market for speculative gain. Since commercial banks act as large depository financial institutions, there is always an inherent risk if they actively participate in the capital market. Further, this particular banking model was widely criticized after the recent US crisis because it fully exposed commercial banks to the capital market. However, the same policy in India has an altogether different contextual background and it may be said that the extent to which Indian banks are exposed is not as much as banks in developed countries. Yet, it does not necessarily means that the Indian economy is not susceptible to any kind of external shock. Indian banks are not aggressive players in the international market and they do not extensively originate credit or derivative structured products.
In this context, though India’s regulatory framework is praised internationally. In India Corporate also began depending more on the banking industry as an immediate effect of the drying of external sources of finance and the collapse of the stock market. Almost all banks show increasing borrowing from the call money market. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) started intervening in the market through a reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) and releasing funds from the balance under the Market Stabilization Scheme (MSS), 20 which declined from Rs. 1,684 billion in 2007-08 to Rs. 882 billion in 2008-09 and further to Rs. 27 billion in 2009-10. This statistics is enough to signify the huge liquidity crunch in the Indian banking system. The only difference with other countries was that to overcome the huge liquidity crisis, the central banks of other countries had to inject liquidity into the system, which expanded their balance sheets, while the RBI could manage the liquidity crunch without expansion of its balance sheet because of its restrictive monetary policy. Repo/reverse repo operations under the daily liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) helped to manage transient liquidity shortfalls/surpluses in the money market (Mohan, 2009, 2011).
Concepts of financial stability in India:
Financial Stability is now a primary concern for the central banks across the globe including Reserve Bank of India. Financial stability is defined variedly by different countries and central banks. Thus, the text is highly contextualized. At the same time, inferences are drawn from these contextual experiences for textualization (universalization) of these lessons. Historically, central banks have been concerned initially with price stability and subsequently with financial stability, though not with the same rigout at the same time. Since the 1990s, however, central banks are pursuing both the objectives concurrently. In fact, financial stability as a concept in mid- 1990s grew out of the concept of macroeconomic stability. The macroeconomic stability being primarily the domain of the Sovereign, financial stability brought the Sovereign and the regulator closer in order to accomplish this task. In any case, financial stability is defined in different ways keeping the domain or interest of the stakeholder in view i.e. how a regulator, a market segment or a unit of sovereign authority is concerned with the financial stability. The more democratic or developing a country is, the more it looks at financial stability from the point of view of multiple stakeholders. In doing so, the role of Sovereign and the regulator becomes all the more significant in reconciling apparently conflicting interests of different stakeholders or the way they look at financial stability. A still more onerous responsibility is cast on the Sovereign to reorder or stagger the priorities since; the full set of goals conceptualized by all the stakeholders is not achievable concurrently. India best represents this situation being a thriving democracy and emerging market economy. In India, Sovereign-the elected government and the statutory regulator (s) work in tandem to ensure financial stability. It has thus far been a success story.
Against this backdrop, the discussions on financial stability (FS) gets entangled with the questions of (a) definition of FS itself, (b) measurement of FS, (c) choice of instruments to achieve FS, and (d) the desirable degree of activism by central banks for FS.
Contextually financial stability in India would mean (a) ensuring uninterrupted settlements of financial transactions-both internal and external, (b) maintenance of a level of confidence in the financial system amongst all the participants and stakeholders, and (c) absence of excess volatility that unduly and adversely affects real economic activity (Governor, RBI: January 2004).
Put differently, financial stability would mean a managed volatility in the full range of financial activities that meet the genuine aspirations of the citizens and the requirements of the Government. This requires sustainability and reasonable predictability of the interplay of players and markets in all the segments of the financial system. The players in the Indian context are banks of all types, non-banking financial companies, development financial institutions, insurance companies, provident funds, central government, state governments, public sector undertakings and even nongovernment organizations and self help groups, as all of them influence the price, movement and quality of funds in the financial system. The regulators are RBI, SEBI, FMC, IRDA, PFRDA and GoI (MoF). Consequently financial stability becomes a joint responsibility of all the policy makers, regulators, punitive agencies and also international overseers of the global financial system. However, in public perception, the central banks are made principally accountable for financial stability even while much of the players and activities are outside the regulatory/supervisory domain of the central banks.
The Reserve Bank of India is also similarly expected to achieve and maintain financial stability. Recognizing this perception, RBI introduced a new chapter named 'Financial Stability' in one of its principal annual publications viz. The Trend and Progress of Banking: 2003–04. Essentially, financial stability rests on three pillars having different custodian’s viz. (a) Stable Institutions, (b) Stable Markets, and (c) Stable Prices. Theoretically speaking, stability of all the three cannot be achieved conjointly. Nor their respective outcome predicted in measurable or comparable terms. But the Sovereign can and does impact all the three pillars by taking different public policy initiatives. Hence all the countries strive for a fair degree of stability of all the three pillars.
Macroeconomic Frameworks for Financial Stability:
Financial stability frameworks need to be strengthened. Central banks must have a major voice in financial stability policy which is closely linked with monetary policy. Central banks are naturally the official institution closest to financial markets. Nevertheless, responsibility for financial stability will almost always be shared with other bodies. How this is done will differ from country to country. But, however done, supervisors need the independence and the powers to act quickly and impartially. Because of the financial crisis, attention has been drawn to the intricate interplay between macroeconomic and financial policies, both national and global. The absence of stable macroeconomic policies can hinder financial development. In addition, weakly supervised and inefficient financial systems can hamper the effectiveness of policy transmission mechanisms and make it harder to manage stable policies. Capital accounts that are becoming more open in both de jure and de facto terms add a further layer of complications in determining the right structure of macroeconomic frameworks.
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, policymakers in emerging markets are again being confronted by conditions that are creating risks to monetary and financial stability. In this chapter, “Monetary Policy Challenges for Emerging Markets in a Globalized Environment,” Sukudhew Singh explores three of these policy issues. One of them is easy monetary policies in the advanced economies, specifically unconventional monetary policies. The chapter argues that these policies are fostering volatility and distortions in the financial markets and creating risks for emerging markets. The second policy issue is management of asset price bubbles. The central banks will have to adopt a proactive approach and overcome the current intellectual paralysis regarding the role of central banks in managing asset price bubbles. The third policy issue is that, in a period of low global interest rates and ample liquidity, commodity prices are again on the rise, which could have dire consequences for emerging markets. Central bank vigilance to guard against spillovers into broader inflationary consequences is essential.
Indian Banking and Financial Sector Reforms:
The main objective of banking sector reforms was to promote a diversified, efficient and competitive financial system with the ultimate goal of improving the allocate efficiency of resources through operational flexibility, improved financial viability and institutional strengthening. The reforms have focused on removing financial repression through reductions in statutory pre- emption, while stepping up prudential regulations at the same time. Furthermore, interest rates on both deposits and lending of banks have been progressively deregulated.
As the Indian banking system had become predominantly government owned by the early 1990s, banking sector reforms essentially took a two pronged approach. First, the level of competition was gradually increased within the banking system while simultaneously introducing international best practices in prudential regulation and supervision tailored to Indian requirements. Second, active steps were taken to improve the institutional arrangements including the legal framework and technological system. Measures to improve the health of the banking system have included (i) restoration of public sector banks' net worth through recapitalization where needed; (ii) streamlining of the supervision process with combination of onsite and off-site surveillance along with external auditing; (iii) introduction of risk based supervision; (iv) introduction of the process of structured. The then RBI governor Mr. Reddy (2002) noted that the approach towards financial sector reforms in India has been based on five principles: (i) cautious and appropriate sequencing of reform measures; (ii) introduction of mutually reinforcing norms; (iii) introduction of complementary reforms across monetary, fiscal and external sectors; (iv) development of financial institutions; and (v) development of financial markets and discretionary intervention for problem banks through a prompt corrective action (PCA) mechanism; (v) institutionalization of a mechanism facilitating greater coordination for regulation and supervision of financial conglomerates; (vi) strengthening creditor rights (still in process); and (vii) increased emphasis on corporate governance.
Consistent with the policy approach to benchmark the banking system to the best international standards with emphasis on gradual harmonization, all commercial banks in India are expected to start implementing Basel II with effect from March 31, 2007–though a marginal stretching beyond this date should not be ruled out in view of the latest indications on the state of preparedness. Recognizing the differences in degrees of sophistication and development of the banking system, it has been decided that the banks will initially adopt the. Standardized Approach for credit risk and the Basic Indicator Approach for operational risk. After adequate skills developed, both by the banks and also by the supervisors, some of the banks may be allowed to migrate to the Internal Rating Based (IRB) Approach. Although implementation of Basel II will require more capital for banks in India, the cushion available in the system–at present, the Capital to Risk Assets Ratio (CRAR) is over 12 per cent–provides some comfort. In order to provide banks greater flexibility and avenues for meeting the capital requirements, the Reserve Bank has issued policy guidelines enabling issuance of several instruments by the banks viz., innovative perpetual debt instruments, perpetual non-cumulative preference shares, redeemable cumulative preference shares and hybrid debt instruments.
REVIEW OF LITERATURE:
Arash Badri and Aidin Sheshgelani (2016):
The effects of financial development and economic growth is one of the importance chanals included the economic issues and have followed a lot of debates. Some economists believe that financial development by increasing savings and increased levels of investment can provide an appropriate basis for economic growth and some others are emphasized, to transfer the effect of financial development on economic growth through its effects on resource allocation and investment efficiency. For this purpose this study is trying to deal with the relationship between financial development, financial integration and economic growth in 24 OIC selected countries using panel data method in period 2005 to 2013. The results of the study show that financial development, human education and government spending have positive effect and financial integration has negative effect on growth in studied countries.
Joseph E. Stiglitz (2010):
The study aimed at establishing the effects of Risk and Global Economic Architecture: Why Full Financial Integration May Be Undesirable. Main objective of this study is to examine the determinants of the desirability of global financial integration. In this paper is can use the model for probability of this can be derived from the binomial distribution. The finally this paper, focusing on risk, has just touched the surface of the complexities of optimal financial architectures. Even ignoring issues raised by learning, information asymmetries, and institutional coordination, it has been shown that full integration may be less desirable than previously thought.
Jayaraj S (2016):
This paper analyzes the interrelationship between market rates of Indian financial market. Purpose of the paper is to explain the impact of financial sector reform measures on integration of various segments of financial markets in India. The study is based on published data. The period is analysis is from 1993 to 2013. This period was selected since it represents the post-liberalization era. Many decontrol measures were implemented during this period Monthly data were collected from Handbook of Statistics on Indian economy and from the data banks of Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The study used different statistical analyses like co integrating regression; vector error correction modeling. The study found there is integration between certain segments of finance market in India. Increased policy changes would expedite the process of financial market integration and will help in the elimination of arbitrage avenues and thereby making the finance markets more efficient.
Nicholas Biekpe, Sephooko Motelle (2013):
The study focused on Financial integration and the stability of the financial system in Southern African Customs Union. Integration of financial markets increased drastically following the advent of globalization, advancement in technology and modernization of payments systems. This paper uses the Kalman Filter to measure the time-varying degree of financial integration in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The findings indicate that, despite the segmentation that characterized the SACU financial markets in the mid-1990s, financial integration within SACU have continued to deepen in later periods. Moreover, there is also evidence of integration with the rest of the world in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Consequently, the SACU financial system has been highly sensitive to external shocks which have tended to increase its stochastic volatility. An emerging lesson from the findings is that financial integration should be accompanied by policies that reduce the probability of instability in the union.
Steven Buigut and Vadhindran Rao (2011):
The present study examine the International Financial Integration of the Indian Money Market, and the study investigates whether the financial liberalization undertaken in India has resulted in integration of Indian markets with global markets. First, their study investigates covered interest rate parity (CIP) between India and the US using 3 month interbank interest rates and 1 year swap rates. The results show little evidence of a long term equilibrium relationship between the domestic interest rate and the covered interest rate. The mostly negative results indicate the presence of a country risk premium and/or binding regulations on capital movements and/or binding restrictions on interbank borrowing and lending. Next, the study has used a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to study the dynamics between the Indian interest rate, the covered interest rate and the US interest rate. The result shows some degree of co integration among Indian and US interest rates, suggesting that linkages less direct than covered interest arbitrage may exist between US and Indian money markets.
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:
In this backdrop of foregoing discussion the following are the specific objectives of the proposed study:
1. To analyse the influence of financial integration on financial stability in India.
2. To examine relation between financial integration Inflation and GDP growth to South Asian countries.
DATA AND METHODOLOGY:
The study purely based on secondary data collected from published and unpublished sources such as World Bank, IMF, RBI, Asian Development bank and etc. However, the main focus of the study is on Secondary source of data and information. To quantify the links between GDP growth rate, Per Capita and Inflation and economic performance in India. Study use data between 2011-2017. The study using different statistical techniques is based on suitable objectives of the study.
Figure-01: Growth Rate of GDP (% Per Year)
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2016
Table-01: Growth rate of Per Capita GDP
|
Growth rate of per capita GDP (% per year) |
|||||||
|
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|
|
South Asia |
5 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
|
Afghanistan |
5.2 |
9.7 |
1.2 |
–0.6 |
–0.4 |
0 |
1 |
|
Bangladesh |
5.1 |
5.2 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
|
Bhutan |
7.8 |
4.6 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
|
India |
5.3 |
4.3 |
5.3 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
6.1 |
6.5 |
|
Maldives |
5.8 |
0.4 |
2.6 |
4.1 |
–0.7 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
|
Nepal |
3.1 |
3.1 |
2.3 |
3.6 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
3.4 |
|
Pakistan |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
2 |
2.2 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
|
Sri Lanka |
7.4 |
11.5 |
2.6 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
5.1 |
3.3 |
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2016
The above figure represents the Growth rate GDP of South Asian Countries, here these all countries showing positive growth in terms of aggregative aspects by way of looking individual growth rate of the countries. India showing the positive growth serially from 2011 to 2017 in 2011 it is 6.6% it raised to 7.8% in 2017. In case of Afghanistan negative growth occurred it is 7.2% in 2011 and special case is in the year of 2012 it possessed the highest growth rate that is 11.9%. So here conclude that in this case of Afghanistan there is higher financial instability. In case of Maldives and Nepal in terms of GDP there is higher instability this will be presented in the figure from 2011 to 2017.
The above table depicts the growth rate of per capita GDP in South Asia countries, the analysis presents that the India repressing the positivity in terms growth rate from 2011 to 2017. That is 5.3% in the year of 2011 it increases to 6.5% in the year of 2017. Whereas compare to Afghanistan repressing negative growth rate in economic terms. In 2011 Afghanistan abled to achieve 5.2% whereas 2017 that is only 1% in between this period in 2012 it generated highest per capita that is 9.7%. Whereas 2014 and 2015 it represented the negative growth-0.6% and-0.4% respectively. In case of Srilanka country representing fluctuated growth rate year by year with concern to above said period. Here the special thing occurred in the year of 2012 the Srilanka generated highest GDP per capita among the South Asian countries that is 11.5% whereas 2017that is decline to 3.3%. Here study may know that instability of financial GDP growth rate per capita
Figure-02: Inflation
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2016
Table-02: GDP growth rate and Inflation
|
GDP growth rate and inflation (% per year) |
||||||||||||||
|
Growth rate of GDP |
Inflation |
|||||||||||||
|
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
|
|
South Asia |
6.3 |
5.6 |
6.2 |
6.7 |
7 |
6.9 |
7.3 |
9.4 |
9.3 |
9.3 |
6.8 |
5 |
5.2 |
5.7 |
|
Afghanistan |
7.2 |
11.9 |
3.2 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
2 |
3 |
11.8 |
6.2 |
7.4 |
4.6 |
–1.5 |
3 |
3.5 |
|
Bangladesh |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6 |
6.1 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
6.9 |
10.9 |
8.7 |
6.8 |
7.3 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
6.5 |
|
Bhutan |
9.7 |
6.4 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
5.9 |
6.4 |
6.1 |
8.6 |
10.2 |
8.8 |
9.6 |
6.6 |
4 |
5 |
|
India |
6.6 |
5.6 |
6.6 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
7.4 |
7.8 |
8.9 |
9.3 |
9.8 |
6.7 |
5 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
|
Maldives |
8.7 |
2.5 |
4.7 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
11.3 |
10.9 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
|
Nepal |
3.8 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
5.1 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.8 |
9.6 |
8.3 |
9.8 |
9.1 |
7.2 |
10.5 |
8.2 |
|
Pakistan |
3.6 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
4 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
13.7 |
11 |
7.4 |
8.6 |
4.5 |
3.2 |
4.5 |
|
Sri Lanka |
8.4 |
9.1 |
3.4 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
5.8 |
6.8 |
7.5 |
6.9 |
3.2 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
5 |
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2016
The above graph represents the rate of inflation in South Asian countries. The all countries of South Asia sentenced to the fluctuated inflation rate. Here the India having declining inflation rate year by year which is good for the health of the economy? Here India repressing 8.9% of the inflation in the year 2011. Whereas it decline to 5.8% in the year of 2017. In between this period India having fluctuated inflation rate. In the year of 2011 Pakistan occurred the highest inflation rate among the South Asian countries that is 13.7% but change is with concern to Pakistan the economy suspected decreasing inflation rate year by year in terms of inflation. Pakistan having 4.5% of inflation in the year 2017. Here study knows that the aggregative inflation of South Asian countries inflation rate is fluctuating accordance with their respective economies financial health conditions.
The above table provides the preview of comparative analysis of the GDP growth rate and Inflation rates among the South Asian countries. Here with comparative to in the year 2011 India achieved 6.6% of growth. Whereas Bhutan generated highest growth that is 9.7% and Pakistan sentenced to least growth that is 3.6% in the year of 2017. India increased its growth rate of 7.8% which is highest among the South Asian countries. Here Afghanistan least growth. With comparative inflation rate India having 8.9% inflation in the year 2011 that is decline to 5.8% in the year of 2017. The presently the country Nepal having highest inflation rate that 8.2% and Maldives having least inflation that is 1.4%. Here with concern to both the growth and inflation. India having the stability in finance with comparative to all other South Asian nations so India causing the better financial integration in its economic system for better functioning of economic activity through finance.
LIMITATION OF THE STUDY AREA:
There are number of limitations in this study. Firstly, the respondents were limited in the terms of the size and composition. Secondly, the data collection was restricted only within the study area. This may fail to represent the actually scenario of the whole country. Researcher limits the data boundary from 2011 to 2017 in India.
SCOPE OF THE STUDY:
In India, research studies mainly concentrates on formal and well organized sector of finance institutions and banking reforms like, World Bank, RBI data base, IMF, Asian Development bank and etc. In the case of these Banking and financial institutions which are quoted in the authorized institutions and subject to Centralizing in data prowess, published data are available or alternatively can be easily generated as they have systematic accounting system. Therefore, the present Study is mainly based on secondary sources. All this goes to show the better prospects and wide scope for Financial Integration in the forthcoming financial era.
CONCLUSION:
Finally the paper highlights that further South Asian financial integration could be an important source of the South Asian countries consist of heterogeneous countries, large and small and tied together by similar historical, cultural, and economic development issues. The study is that South Asian financial integration in the form of capital inflow and outflow of significantly affects economics growth of the nations both in short as well as long run and changes of the in economic growth due to international financial integration through financial development in the South Asian respective countries. In this study the paper examines the current status of the financial development and financial cooperation in the region and also looked at the likely factors influencing South Asian financial integration and further study based on limited data availability found that in the context of South Asia the major determinants of financial integration are trade level, GDP, Per capita and Inflation to the enhance to the financial stability. Our findings are however subject to data limitations and firms and robust results for the South Asian countries can be obtained it data on large number of observations to be available for the development of further research. Overall South Asian countries financial stability is invaluable because only a stable financial system provides a level playing field and GDP growth stimulus to real economic activities.
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Received on 23.03.2018 Modified on 25.04.2018
Accepted on 01.05.2018 ©AandV Publications All right reserved
Asian Journal of Management. 2018; 9(3):1157-1164.
DOI: 10.5958/2321-5763.2018.00187.7